Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 21.367405 23.387526 25.644186 28.379685 31.644896 35.469701 40.370558
2025-01-05 18.448463 21.086164 24.269499 28.494586 34.124116 41.648130 53.035621
2025-01-12 16.501396 19.404290 23.095369 28.323432 35.905359 47.230750 67.317088
2025-01-19 15.568942 18.766080 23.024524 29.433438 39.543224 56.570008 93.259609
2025-01-26 14.379579 17.604585 22.029976 28.964739 40.568538 61.968710 116.518832
2025-02-02 13.531080 16.795136 21.394997 28.876306 42.123387 68.935153 152.096233
2025-02-09 12.929741 16.258913 21.071775 29.191462 44.427975 78.585118 215.094838
2025-02-16 12.338978 15.677778 20.604820 29.172376 46.070331 87.687272 308.436277
2025-02-23 11.832996 15.174933 20.198968 29.182231 47.762716 98.134036 483.211200
2025-03-02 11.417617 14.772025 19.905459 29.338587 49.812709 111.429061 931.751588
2025-03-09 10.988207 14.316111 19.481895 29.187518 51.121363 123.632769 2310.859567
2025-03-16 10.663217 13.997252 19.252699 29.370769 53.308179 142.061623 410793.436610
2025-03-23 10.283074 13.589480 18.874362 29.280294 54.993408 162.316187 NaN
2025-03-30 9.959382 13.253656 18.595917 29.367980 57.282251 191.579966 NaN
2025-04-06 9.620842 12.873848 18.210341 29.179757 58.755823 220.923208 NaN
2025-04-13 9.507354 12.846885 18.439396 30.345473 64.959271 318.215417 NaN
2025-04-20 9.173484 12.440829 17.954831 29.851689 65.484805 363.319479 NaN
2025-04-27 8.918234 12.151070 17.661276 29.758527 67.461180 452.509767 NaN
2025-05-04 8.735063 11.970840 17.555261 30.090092 71.254773 649.114114 NaN
2025-05-11 8.521858 11.729212 17.316426 30.069998 73.706429 912.202090 NaN
2025-05-18 8.326299 11.508016 17.100997 30.080368 76.372352 1421.404028 NaN
2025-05-25 8.160117 11.328957 16.953930 30.244924 79.917284 2953.881952 NaN
2025-06-01 7.969304 11.099236 16.693891 30.085930 81.901234 7402.771797 NaN